Nyheder fra Quantrom

  •       Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments Interest payments in March were in line with our expectations. Current loans represented 78.0% of the value of the portfolio at the end of March slightly higher than the previous month. Except for loans with a delay of 31-60 days, all other groups of delayed loans fell in March. Quantrom P2P Lending has not taken any provisions in March 2021 and it should be noted that we have started to the see the first payments from one of the loan originators where we have taken […]

  • Is inflation coming or not? This question has taken centre stage over the last couple of months, and it has had a significant impact on yields, credit spreads and stock market valuations: one week inflation is thought to be returning, so credit spreads widen and equity investors switch to value stocks; the following week, inflation is not considered an imminent concern and the reverse happens. Is inflation currently a problem for central banks? COVID-19 has once more obliged central banks to enter unchartered waters that are difficult to navigate with monetary policies. Plenty of liquidity and government fiscal packages should […]

  • Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments Interest payments in February were slightly higher than our expectations since payments normally are lower in the shortest month of the year. Current loans represented 77.6% of the value of the portfolio at the end of February an increase of more than 1.5%-point during the month. Except for loans with a delay of 1-15 days, all other groups of delayed loans fell in February. In February Quantrom P2P Lending has not taken any provisions. The return for the month of February 2021 was 0.61%. Since inception, Quantrom P2P […]

  •   In the wake of the signing of the Treaty of Versailles in 1919, a book was published that made its author, the economist John Maynard Keynes, famous. Largely forgotten today, “The Economic Consequences of the Peace” predicted that Germany would collapse under the burden of paying war reparations. 100 years later, should we worry about the “collapse” of the young generation under the burden of paying for COVID-19?   The words of Keynes are still valid In 2007, a reprint of Keynes’s book appeared with an introduction by Paul Volcker, a former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, who wrote: […]

  • Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments Interest payments in January was fully in line with our expectations. Current loans represented 76.1% of the value of the portfolio at the end of January an increase of almost 2%-point during the month. At the same time loans 60+ days late increased slightly. In January, an auction related to a delayed property loan unfortunately were not settled and the property will have to reauctioned. Staying with our cautious approach we have taken provision of 0.02%. The return for the month of January 2021 was 0.60%. Since inception, […]

  • Having finally seen the back of 2020, 2021 had barely started when we witnessed significant historical events, such as the onset of Brexit, demonstrators storming the US Congress and a US president impeached for the second time. But will any of this impact investors with a 3-5 year investment horizon? 2020 returns and fundamentals Now that 2020 is over, it is time to review the fundamental events that took place during the year, most of which were closely related to the COVID-19 pandemic: the lockdown in the second quarter; the worst drop in quarterly GDP for decades; huge fiscal emergency […]

  •     Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments Interest payments in December 2020 was in absolute terms one of the best, which lead to the highest monthly return of the year. Current loans represented 75.0% of the value of the portfolio at the end of December slightly lower than in November. At the same time loans 60+ days late remained unchanged. In December 2020, we did not take any provisions. The return for the month of December 2020 was 0.66% giving a return of more than 6% for the year 2020. Since inception, Quantrom […]

  •   2020 will soon be history. When we look back on 2020 in future years, it will be interesting to see how the political and economic decisions that governments and central banks took in 2020 will be judged. Such a review may not be that favourable in hindsight. Year of COVID-19 At the beginning of 2020 hardly anyone (except perhaps a handful of virologists) expected that the virus from Wuhan would eventually have such an impact on the global economy, yet it did. As COVID-19 spread through Europe, more and more countries went into lockdown; in the second quarter, the […]

  •   Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments Interest payments in November was somewhat lower than October. Current loans represented 75.7% of the value of the portfolio at the end of November just under 1%-point lower than in October. At the same time loans 60+ days late increased 0.6%-point to 4.10% of the value of the portfolio. During November, an agreement with one Polish loan originator has been reached on how to repay outstanding amounts. Towards the end of Q1 2021 the loan originator should restart payments. However, we are not changing our cautious approach […]

  •   November has been a very good month in that several pharma companies have been able to verify in clinical phase 3 clinical trials that they have a vaccine almost ready for distribution. This is particularly good news for all of us. However, it does not change the fact that the economy has taken a severe hit that will take years to overcome. Macroeconomic outlook and monetary implications In the spring of 2020, we wrote in our Newsletter that we would have to see GDP figures for the third quarter before assessing the likely impact on the economy. The preliminary […]

  •     Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments Interest payments in October was slightly higher than expected and borrowers are catching up with their late payments. Current loans represented 76.9% of the value of the portfolio at the end of October basically unchanged from September. At the same time loans 60+ days late decreased slightly to 3.50% of the value of the portfolio. We continue to take provision on the Polish loan originator under COVID-19 protection equal to approximately 0.1% in October. Furthermore, COVID-19 has unexpectedly delayed some transactions related to some of our […]

  •   While COVID-19 infections are rising again all over Europe, investors must consider the impact on alternative lending, as well as what the market drivers will be going forward. The baseline First and foremost, it is necessary to understand where the baseline is for alternative lending in the EU. Until the end of 2019, the development in loan originations followed a pattern of approximately doubling every 12 months, as seen in the following chart: Figure 1 Development in EU loan origination (source: Brismo/Loan clear) This development was interrupted when COVID-19 began to spread in Europe. Based on our experience and […]

  •     Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments In September, interest payments were higher than in August in line with our expectations. The borrowers are back after the holiday period and have started paying again. Current loans represented 77.1% of the value of the portfolio at the end of September basically unchanged from August. At the same time loans 60+ days late increased to 4.0% of the value of the portfolio. Without receiving any new information regarding the Polish loan originator that is under Polish COVID-19 protection and in line with our cautious approach, […]

  •   Eastern Europe is still a region that many investors associate with the former Soviet Union (regimes that are corrupt at all levels and dysfunctional at the best of times), and there is still a lingering concern that not much has changed since the Soviet Union was disbanded in 1991. However, nothing could be further from the truth. Eastern European countries that are EU member states are fast closing the gap with their western counterparts. The late Hans Rosling, co-founder and chairman of the Gapminder Foundation and Professor of International Health at Karolinska Institute, observed that people’s perceptions are often […]

  •       Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Update on alternative lending After a very unusual beginning of 2020 the market for alternative lending is returning to a more normal situation under the summer holiday “slump”. Monthly comments In August, interest payments were down from July as excepted. Cash flow, reflecting the normal seasonal pattern, always drops in August when borrowers are on holiday. Current loans represented 77.2% of the value of the portfolio at the end of August, a decrease of 0.7%-points. At the same time loans more than 60+ days late increased to […]

  •   For investors COVID-19 have created a huge challenge with high volatility in the markets and central banks that is buying almost unlimited amount of government bonds in order to stabilise those financial markets that otherwise would be flooded with bonds. This gives stability short-term, but what will be expected over the coming 5 years investment horizon. Alternative lending – Quantrom expected returns Based upon more than 3 years of track record including the turbulent last six months with COVID-19, our expectation is that loan originators with a good process and credit model will not have problems navigating this difficult […]

  •       Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Update on crowdlending market situation The development in crowdlending in July has been quite stable. The load originators with whom we are mainly invested are performing rather well under these difficult circumstances. We have therefore noticed that they have started to buy-back loans with high interest rates, while issuing loans with lower interest rates. Demand has picked up without a significant increase in loan origination volumes. Monthly comments The interest payments received in July were in line with expectation and at the same level as in June. […]

  • Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Update on crowdlending market situation Volumes in crowdlending have been stabilising during June, but at much lower levels. The best loan originators have significantly reduced their offering of loans on the platforms coursed by two factors: Firstly, less demand from borrowers and secondly tightening of credit process. This has resulted in lower interest rates on loans offered in the market. We expect this will continue until volumes again starts to increase. Monthly comments The interest payments received in June was in line with expectation and slightly higher than in May. […]

  •   One of the most common subjects of debate in the fund management industry over the last decade has been the notion that, as investment managers rarely outperform the market, investors should pay as small a management fee as possible in order to increase their net returns. Yet, when investing in markets where full information is simply unavailable, paying a reasonable fee for good investment management can have a positive impact on returns. In a crisis, active management can help investors navigate the volatility of the financial markets. During the first weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic, many investors tried to […]

  •     Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Update on crowdlending market situation The crowdlending market has stabilised during May, but volumes of loans issued are significantly lower than before the COVID-19 lockdown. As EU is slowly getting out of the pandemic lockdown and the economies are reopening, we expect that interest rates and loan volumes will stabilise at the current level until more clarity is at hand. Monthly comments The interest payments received in May was in line with expectation and we still had some opportunities to buy at favourable rates in the secondary market. […]

  •   There are risks associated with all types of investment, and crowdlending is no exception. As with any type of lending, the two main factors in determining whether good returns are sustainable are, firstly, macroeconomic fundamentals, and, secondly, the quality of borrowers’ credit assessments. In this newsletter, we will take a closer look at these factors. Macroeconomic fundamentals In an internal working paper, Quantrom has forecasted some central economic time series to obtain a better understanding of the likely future development of economic fundamentals in the countries that we invest in. The COVID-19 recession will have a huge impact on […]

  •       Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Update on crowdlending market situation The crowdlending market has cooled down during April. The rush for the exit has almost run out of steam since investors that thought crowdlending was an alternative to bank deposits have liquidated large parts of their holdings. The consequence is, that discounts in the market are getting smaller. Loan originators are still in need of funding and while the amounts funded is down to 25% – 30% of the amount a couple of months ago, interest rates have gone up in order […]

  •   As Covid-19 dominates the agenda all over Europe and in most of the rest of the world, this newsletter will not only examine the effect of the pandemic on crowdlending in the here and now, but also take a peek beyond the lockdown to gain a preliminary assessment of its ultimate impact on our investments. Loan origination in April falls to a factor of previous levels When the Covid-19 lockdowns began, the most interesting question for us was whether borrowers and loan originators would flood the market with loan requests to create as much liquidity as possible, or whether […]

  • This month Quantrom P2P Lending has been investing for 3 years and in this period given our investors a return of more than 27%. Unfortunately, COVID-19 is driving the agenda which we focus on in this monthly report.   Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target   Current market situation With the turbulent times in the financial market it is unavoidable that crowdlending would be impacted by COVID-19 when the economies in Europe are in different degrees of lock down. Based upon the interest payments we have received this month, we have noticed that current loans are […]

  • Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments The interest received in February was, as expected lower than a typical month, but fully in line with our expectations. This resulted in a return of 0.51% for the month. Since inception, Quantrom P2P Lending has given a return of 26.85% and outperformed the long-term return target by 5.68%-points. Current loans were at the end of February 72.6% of the value of the portfolio, an increase of almost 0.6%-points. At the same time loans more than 60+ days late decreased slightly. This month, we have not taken any […]

  •   Crowdlending has grown significantly since 2015, and while many areas remain unregulated, policymakers and regulators in several countries are in the process of catching up with developments. We expect that the EU will lead in this process in order to benefit from the safe scaling of alternative financing to SMEs and consumers. In a joint report from The World Bank Group and the University of Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance on “Regulating Alternative Finance”, one of the key findings is that: “Policymakers globally are keen to explore the promise of alternative finance. A clear majority are optimistic about its […]

  •     Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments In January, interest received was in line with expectations and the overall result was a return of 0.47% for the month. Since inception, Quantrom P2P Lending has given a return of 26.21% and outperformed the long-term return target by 5.50%-points. Current loans were at the end of January 71.3% of the value of the portfolio, an increase of almost 2%-points. It is the known seasonal pattern, where borrower resume their payments after the holiday period, that comes into effect. Loans late more than 60 days has […]

  • Ten years ago, the Western economies had just survived the most severe shock since the crash of Wall Street in 1929. Lehman Brothers had collapsed in the late summer of 2008, swiftly followed by other significant players in the financial system. The central banks in the US, the EU and Japan came to the rescue by applying increasingly lower interest rates and providing massive amounts of liquidity. As we enter a new decade, however, investors must be wondering how long this situation can continue. A working paper by De Nederlandsche Bank’s Hudepohl, van Lamoen and de Vette[1] (HLV) examines the […]

  •     Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments In December, interest received was in line with expectations. The overall result was a return of 0.44% for the month of December 0.03% – point higher than the long-term return target. Since inception, Quantrom P2P Lending has given a return of 25.61% and outperformed the long-term return target by 5.40%-points. Current loans were at the end of December 69.6% of the value of the portfolio, which is a decrease of 4%-points. The decrease is a function of the seasonality around Christmas where many borrowers are late […]

  •     In November, interest received was slightly lower than expectations. The overall result was a return of 0.45% for the month of November 0.04% – point higher than the long-term return target. Since inception, Quantrom P2P Lending has given a return of 25.06% and outperformed the long-term return target by 5.34%-points. Current loans were at the end of November increased to 74.0% of the value of the portfolio. Loans late more than 60 days has increased slightly to 2.9% of the value of the portfolio in November. During the last couple of months, payments from one loan originators have […]

  • Many EU countries are currently debating whether or not to cap interest rates for non-bank lenders. However, before politicians make a too-hasty decision on capping interest rates at certain percentage, they would be well advised to study the report “Price rules in consumer credit, should the EU act?” from the European Credit Research Institute (ECRI) as well as the EU Commission’s latest European Economic Forecast. The findings of these publications strongly suggest that financial inclusion should form the main focus for any policy change – not an arbitrarily chosen percentage. The World Bank defines financial inclusion as “individuals have access […]

  • In October, interest received was in line with expectations, but quite lower than in September. The overall result was a return of 0.53% for the month of October 0,12% – point higher than the long-term return target. From 1. October the long-term return target has been lowered due to lower level of interest rate offered in the peer-to-peer market. The lower interest rates received was, as previously mentioned, already noticeable in October. In October, we took a provision of less than 0.005%. Since inception, Quantrom P2P Lending has given a return of 24.50% and outperformed the long-term return target by […]

  •   With the ECB and Federal Reserve supporting financial markets with further interest rates cuts and additional bond purchases, comparative returns in alternative lending are extremely attractive. At the same time, the best loan originators can now provide longer track records. These factors are encouraging both retail and institutional investors to move into alternative lending in Europe. Since the financial crisis in 2008, yields on 30-year German government bonds have been moving around a falling trend line that is now bottoming out in negative territory, while yields on 30-year Italian government bonds have similarly fallen during the same period, except […]

  • In September, interest received was a bit above our long-term expectations. The overall result was a return of 0.67% for the month of September 0.1% – point higher than the long-term return target. In September we took a provision of 0.04%-point on loans that are not in default but where the payments have been irregular over the last couple of months. Since inception, Quantrom P2P Lending has given a return of 23.85% and outperformed the long-term return target by 5.09%-points. Current loans were at the end of September up 4%-point to 70.2% of the value of the portfolio as borrowers […]

  •   Two Danish banks and a Swiss bank have already told their wealthy clients that deposits over a certain amount will cost them (the clients) money. That is only the beginning, and we expect other banks to follow if the ECB lowers interest rates further. It is indeed a new era in banking when banks begin to charge negative interest rates on deposits. Unfortunately for people with savings, this is unlikely to change over the coming five to ten years. With a possible economic recession currently looming on the horizon, it was not surprising that the ECB lowered its official […]

  •     Figure 1 Performance of Note price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments In August, interest received was in line with our expectation given that we have entered into the holiday period, where borrowers tend to be slightly behind on their payments. The overall result was a return of 0.64% for the month of August 0.08% – point higher than the long-term return target. In August, we reversed our provision with approximately 0.01%-point. This is coursed by a default property loan, where the underlying assets has been sold. The proceeds from the sale of the property covered all outstanding […]

  •   At the beginning of August, 30-year German government bonds traded at negative yield levels for the first time ever. Central bankers and investors must be wondering what’s next. During the last 25 years, yields on 30-year German government bonds have fallen from around 8% to 0%; since the financial crisis of 2008 alone, yields have fallen by 5 percentage points. Figure 1 Germany 30-year bond yield 1994 – 2019 (source: Investing.com) Now that even 30-year German government bonds are trading with negative yields, financial markets are even further into unchartered territory. It is simply extraordinary to think that investors […]

  •     In July, interest received was a bit higher than our expectation given that we have entered into the holiday period, where borrowers tend to be slightly behind on their payments. The overall result was a return of 0.63% for the month of July 0.07% – point higher than the long-term return target. In July we have taken a provision of 0.005% on loans in default. Since inception, Quantrom P2P Lending has given a return of 22.24% and outperformed the long-term return target by 4.82%-points. Loans late more than 60 days has fallen below 1.5% of the value of […]

  •     In June, interest received was in line with expectation. However, the overall result was 0.57% for the month of June slightly higher than the long-term return target. This result was impacted by a provision taken in June of almost 0.1%-point on a property loan in default. Since inception, Quantrom P2P Lending has given a return of 21.48% and outperformed the long-term return target by 4.71%-points. Loans late more than 60 days was 1.6% of the value of the portfolio. Current loans were at the end of June up 1.5%-point to 73.6% of the value of the portfolio. Current […]

  • Quantrom Newsletter #19 June 2019 Time is on the side of Tech in more ways than one. As time goes by, fintech companies are developing new and faster solutions for the financial services industry, while simultaneously leaving many of the traditional providers behind. We have just returned from a peer-to-peer lending conference in Riga, and one thing is abundantly clear: fintech development is progressing extremely rapidly. From transfer services to peer-to-peer lending, progress in fintech is steaming ahead and the potential is huge. While more and more services are being developed in both Europe and the US, the big prize […]

  • Dear Investor, Alternative lending and Quantrom P2P Lending are both moving forward at a brisk pace. First, and most importantly, the alternative lending market is growing at a rate of 100 percent per annum. Based on data from ALTFI, along with own forecasts derived from information received from platforms and loan originators, we expect alternative loan origination in the EU to reach approximately EUR 25 billion by the end of 2021. Figure 1 Alternative lending Forecast Considering that loan origination was just over EUR 1 billion for the entire year in 2017, this is quite a remarkable development. Already in […]

  • Quantrom P2P Lending DAC – Monthly Report May 2019 As of 31 May 2019     Figure 1 Performance of share price and Long-Term Return Target Monthly comments In May, interest received was in line with expectation and the return for the month was 0.67% outperforming the long-term return target with 0.10%-point. Since inception, Quantrom P2P Lending has given a return of 20.79% and outperformed the long-term return target by 4.67%-points. In May 2019 a small provision for non-performing loans were taken. Loans late more than 60 days was 1.5% of the portfolio. Current loans were at the end of […]

  •   Dear Investor, Many investors have never been able to include alternative investments in their portfolios until now. Institutional investors have long been able to obtain higher-than-average returns by investing in the alternative sphere; private equity, for example, has handsomely rewarded such investors. Alternative investments have hitherto been the preserve of UHNWIs (Ultra High-Net-Worth Individuals) and institutional investors able to afford the high entry costs required for investing in hedge funds, private equity, venture capital funds and the like. Most investors, though, have only had access to traditional asset classes such as equities, bonds, currencies and investment funds, which are […]

  • I dette nyhedsbrev vil vi fokusere på din opsparing og hvordan realrenten har stor indflydelse på dit afkast over en 20-årig opsparingsperiode. Når du sparer op til din pension har renters rente ligeledes en stor indflydelse på det endelig resultat. Mange pensionsselskaber forventer, at afkastet justeret for inflationsudviklingen (realrenten) vil udgøre 1% per år over de næste 20 år. Figur 1 viser 3 forskellige scenarier og udviklingen for at nå en real værdi af EUR 100.000 om 20 år.   Figur 1 Start opsparing for at have en real opsparing på EUR 100.000 om 20 år.     I scenariet, […]

  • Stable return continues for Quantrom P2P Lending. For more details please consult the enclosed monthly report for May 2018  

  • In April 2018 the return of Quantrom P2P Lending DAC was 0.874%. Year-on-Year this gives a return of 9.85%. The monthly report has all the details on the portfolio.      

  • In our Newsletter in April, we are looking into a survey conducted by Greenwich Associates on the investment in peer-to-peer lending or direct lending by institutional investors in US. 50% of the participants in the survey have already invested in peer-to-peer lending or are investigating how to invest. The survey interview 74 institutional investors with 3.7 trillion USD in asset under management  

  • Dear Investor Quantrom P2P Lending DAC has now invested for more than a year. One year and 15 days to be precise. In that period we have given our investors a return of 9.90%. From March 2017 until March 2018 the year-on-year return has been 9.73% Quantrom P2P Lending DAC had a return of 0.826% in March 2018. More information can be found in our Monthly Report. Monthly Report March 2018  

  • In the middle of January, we send this newsletter to our clients with an analysis of correlations between different types of assets. With interest rates rising in the beginning of 2018 and followed in the first week of February by significant falls in the equity prices, events that clearly illustrates the importance of having a diversified portfolio. Peer-to-Peer offers an alternative.    

  •   It is with great pleasure that I can announce that Tony Jønsson has joined Quantrom Ltd. as a partner from 1 November 2017. Tony comes from a position as senior portfolio manager in Nordea Luxembourg where he has been working since 2011. He has more than 30 years of experience in banking and asset management with particular focus on interest and credit markets. Tony has a background in banking and has worked in a number of financial institutions like Jyske Bank, Provinsbanken as well as Danske Bank and Stora Financial Services. For more than 20 years I have had […]

  • October has another month with a stable return for Quantrom P2P Lending. 0.819% for the month and a total return of 5.88% since Mid-March. More details on the performance and our portfolio of peer-2-peer loans can be found in our monthly report that was just been published.    

  • Quantrom Limited has chosen Fellow Finance as the third platform for making investments. Fellow Finance is active in Finland and Poland, where they offer peer-to-peer loans to private borrowers in both countries and to SMEs in Finland. Over the last year, Fellow Finance has increased its monthly loan origination significantly, reaching approximately 6 million EUR in April 2017. It is now one of the larger platforms active in EUR. Fellow Finance gives Quantrom P2P Lending DAC a large number of loans to choose from, making it possible to build an even more diversified portfolio. From the beginning of May 2017, […]

  • The following presentation is a quick introduction to Quantrom P2P Lending DAC ande peer-to-peer lending market in just 15 slides. In the US the volume of loan origination in the peer-to-peer lending market has grown 50 times over the period from 2011 to 2015.  In Europe (ex UK) the volume of loans originated in 2015 was only slightly larger than the volume in 2011 in the US. Quantrom P2P Leding DAC (QP2PL) is a designated activity company incorporated in Ireland. QP2PL invest in peer-to-peer lending via a number of platforms to have a diversified portfolio of loans. Our aim is […]

  • Bruegel today published a policy brief by André Sapir, Dirk Schoenmaker and Nicolas Véron on the future of the financial system in EU27. Bruegel Policy Brief: Making the best of Brexit for the EU27 financial system The brief outlines new possibilities for EU27 if the EU and the member states can rethink the regulation setup in the single market. Comments: In the brief there are some really interesting ideas about the future of the financial services in the EU. One should not under estimate the effect of UK not sitting at the table any longer and protecting the interest of […]